Chiefs, Ravens Fall Out of AFC Playoff Spot as Wild Card Race Turns Into Chaos After Thanksgiving
Nov, 29 2025
When the final whistle blew at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving night, the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t just lose to the Dallas Cowboys — they lost their grip on the postseason. At 6-6, the defending AFC champions are now on the outside looking in, and with just five games left, every misstep feels like a death sentence. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens, once thought to be cruising to the AFC North title, dropped to 6-6 after a stunning 27-20 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, temporarily knocking them out of the playoff picture entirely. The Pittsburgh Steelers, at 6-5, aren’t exactly celebrating — their slip-up against the Cleveland Browns last week has turned what looked like a comfortable wild card bid into a nail-biting scramble.
The AFC Wild Card Logjam
The AFC wild card race isn’t just tight — it’s a traffic jam with six teams crammed into the last two spots. The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills all sit at 7-4, each with a slight edge thanks to tiebreakers. Below them, the Houston Texans are one game back at 6-5, and then comes the chaos: the Chiefs and Ravens, both 6-6, fighting for their lives. The New England Patriots lead the conference at 10-2, the Denver Broncos are 9-2, and the Indianapolis Colts sit at 8-3 — all division winners, all locked into top-three seeds. But beyond them? It’s a bloodbath.
Here’s the thing: no team has clinched a playoff berth yet. Not even the Patriots, who, despite their record, still need to win out to guarantee a first-round bye. That’s how deep this race is. According to Bleacher Report’s November 27 analysis, the Chargers’ win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Jaguars’ comeback against the Tennessee Titans, and the Bills’ gritty road victory in Miami didn’t just add wins — they added pressure. Now, every team below 7-4 is playing for survival.
The Ravens’ Path — And the Steelers’ Trap
The Baltimore Ravens still have a lifeline: win the AFC North. Their remaining schedule includes a home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14 and a season finale in Pittsburgh in Week 18. That’s not just a rivalry — it’s a playoff decider. If the Ravens win both, they’re in as division champs. If they lose one? They’ll need help from the Chargers, Jaguars, or Bills to stumble. And here’s the twist: the Steelers’ loss to the Browns wasn’t just a bad day — it was a gift to Baltimore. Pittsburgh’s offense has been sputtering since Week 9, and their defense, once elite, now ranks 24th in points allowed. They’re not a playoff team right now — they’re a spoiler.
“The Ravens still control their destiny,” said NFL Network analyst Dan Hanzus in a November 28 breakdown. “But the Steelers? They’re the wildcard that could make or break everyone else’s season. If Pittsburgh wins in Week 14, the AFC North is wide open. If Baltimore wins? It’s over.”
Chiefs in Crisis
The Kansas City Chiefs situation is more alarming. They’re not just 6-6 — they’re 6-6 with a brutal schedule ahead. After a home loss to the Cowboys, they face the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Los Angeles Chargers in their final five games. Three of those are on the road. Their offensive line has been shredded by injuries. Patrick Mahomes is still playing at an MVP level, but he’s not a one-man team. And unlike the Ravens, they don’t have a division title to fall back on. The AFC West is gone. Their only hope? Win out, hope the Texans falter, and pray the Jaguars or Bills collapse in December.
“It’s not about talent anymore,” said former Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson on ESPN Radio. “It’s about resilience. And right now, they’re just not showing it.”
What’s at Stake Beyond the Playoffs
This isn’t just about who makes the postseason. It’s about momentum, coaching futures, and franchise trajectories. The Houston Texans, at 6-5, are on the cusp of their first playoff appearance since 2019. The Jacksonville Jaguars are trying to prove their 2024 turnaround wasn’t a fluke. The Buffalo Bills are chasing their first Super Bowl since 1994 — and every win now feels like a step toward redemption.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams lead the NFC at 9-2, and the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears are tied at 8-3. But the AFC? It’s a war zone. The difference between 7-5 and 6-6 isn’t just a game — it’s a lifetime of draft picks, coaching changes, and fan expectations.
What’s Next?
Week 14 is the turning point. The Ravens visit the Steelers on December 5 — a game that could decide the AFC North and possibly eliminate one team from playoff contention entirely. The Chiefs host the 49ers the same day. If Kansas City loses, they’ll need to win their final four games just to have a chance. Meanwhile, the Chargers face the Broncos, the Jaguars play the Titans, and the Bills take on the Patriots. One or two upsets could flip the entire wild card hierarchy.
The postseason starts January 4, 2026. But right now, every Sunday feels like a playoff game.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes — but it’s extremely unlikely. The Chiefs would need to win all five of their remaining games, including matchups against the 49ers, Bills, and Chargers. Even then, they’d need at least two of the Chargers, Jaguars, or Bills to lose at least two games each. Their lack of a division title and tough schedule make them the least likely 6-6 team to sneak in.
Why is the Ravens-Steelers game so important?
That Week 14 matchup is a de facto playoff elimination game. The winner controls the AFC North title and gains a crucial tiebreaker. If the Ravens win, they’re likely in as division champs. If the Steelers win, they’ll push Baltimore to 6-7 and open the door for Houston or Tennessee to sneak in. The Week 18 rematch could be even more dramatic — it might decide the final wild card spot.
Who has the easiest path to a wild card spot?
The Houston Texans have the most favorable remaining schedule among teams at 6-5. They face the Jets, Browns, Raiders, and Titans — all teams with losing records. If they win three of those four, they’ll likely clinch a spot. Their biggest hurdle? The Chargers and Jaguars have better tiebreakers, so Houston can’t afford to lose to any of the bottom-tier teams.
Why can’t the New England Patriots clinch a playoff berth yet?
Despite being 10-2, the Patriots can’t clinch because the NFL’s tiebreaking rules require a team to have a record that can’t be matched by any other team in the conference. With five teams still mathematically alive for wild cards, and the possibility of multiple teams finishing 10-7 or better, the Patriots must win out to guarantee a top-two seed — and even then, they won’t officially clinch until another team is eliminated.
Which team has the most to lose in the next two weeks?
The Pittsburgh Steelers. At 6-5, they’re on the bubble — but their remaining schedule includes the Ravens, Bills, and Bengals. A loss to Baltimore in Week 14 would drop them to 6-6 with four tough games left. If they fall behind the Texans or Chiefs in the tiebreaker, their season could end before Christmas. Their window for contention is closing faster than their offense can move the ball.
Is there a chance two 7-4 teams miss the playoffs?
Absolutely. The AFC has only two wild card spots, and three teams are tied at 7-4. The Chargers, Jaguars, and Bills all have identical records, so tiebreakers — head-to-head, division record, conference record — will decide who makes it. If the Bills lose to the Patriots and Chargers, and the Jaguars lose to the Titans and Ravens, they could both finish 8-8 and still miss out if the Texans win out at 8-8 with a better tiebreaker. It’s that messy.